Albertans head into the final weekend of campaigning before Monday’s historic referendum, with new polling suggesting the remain side has widened its lead — and Premier Danielle Smith ruling out a second vote if her side wins.
A Léger online survey of 1,001 Albertans, conducted October 2–4, found 70 per cent favour remaining in Canada, up from 65 per cent in August, while 22 per cent back starting the legal process toward a binding separation referendum and 7 per cent are undecided, according to Alberta News’ campaign reporting. More than three-quarters of respondents rated their likelihood of voting at 8 to 10 out of 10.
A province split along party lines
The partisan divide underneath is stark: 98 per cent of NDP voters favour remain, while among UCP voters it is 43 per cent remain and 48 per cent for starting the separation process. Remain voters are also more locked in — 91 per cent rate their certainty at 8–10, versus 71 per cent for the other side.
The campaign’s final days have been dominated by rallies. Prime Minister Mark Carney drew 7,000 to a “Forever Canadian” rally in Calgary, while Edmonton hosted its own pro-Canada event Friday. Former premier Jason Kenney told a Chamber audience the party must stand by its commitment to Canada or show separatists “the door” — and Red Deer-South MLA Jason Stephan confirmed he voted for Option 2, starting the separation process.
Smith: “Not as long as I’m premier”
Asked by the CBC’s Adrienne Arsenault whether she would hold another separation referendum if remain wins on Monday, Smith answered: “Not as long as I’m premier.” On the other nine ballot questions — covering immigration, provincial programmes and constitutional arrangements — she pointed to “majority rule”, saying rejections would simply mean pursuing “other things”.
Half of Albertans expect the debate to hurt the economy, and 21 per cent say household spending has already fallen because of the uncertainty. After a campaign that followed Carney’s Calgary rally and a string of Forever Canadian events, Monday will finally let the province speak.
