The most persuasive number at the Montreal summit may not be a political phrase but a trade figure. EU imports of Canadian critical raw materials, including lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, rose 62 percent in 2025 to 3.3 billion euros, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. That growth, in a single year, is the economic foundation of Canada’s pitch to Europe: a reliable supplier of the metals inside defence, battery and clean energy supply chains, at a moment when Europe is determined to reduce dependence on less reliable sources.
The summit was expected to add finance to that foundation. An agreement allowing the European Investment Bank to back Canadian critical mineral projects would give developers something they have often lacked: long term, patient capital for mines and processing plants that take years to build and longer to pay back. TD Economics has named pension funds and asset managers among the institutions placed to finance Europe’s energy, defence and critical mineral build out, and financial services sits among the sectors carrying the largest long term opportunities in a deeper Canada EU relationship, alongside defence, energy, critical minerals and digital markets.
Why finance is the bottleneck
Critical mineral projects fail more often on finance than on geology. A deposit can be proven, a processing method can be tested, and the project can still stall because no lender will fund a decade long build in a remote location against a volatile commodity price. European Investment Bank backing changes that calculation, because it signals that a project has passed a public institution’s due diligence and carries a degree of political support. For Canadian provinces, where many of the deposits sit, that signal matters as much as the money itself.
The regulatory side matters too. The Canada EU trade agreement’s Financial Services Committee gives regulators a venue to address cross border issues and the recognition of prudential rules, and closer cooperation on licensing and supervision could reduce duplicate compliance requirements. Formal recognition and market access decisions remain with the relevant authorities, but even a reduction in duplicate paperwork lowers the cost of doing business across the Atlantic, and for mining finance, where margins are thin and timelines long, that cost reduction can decide whether a project proceeds.
What Quebec and the provinces will ask
The provincial question runs through every Montreal commitment. Quebec has its own seat at the table in practice, if not in the summit room, because minerals, energy and language policy all touch provincial jurisdiction. The provinces will ask how the benefits of new mineral finance are shared, how environmental assessment is handled, and how Indigenous communities, whose lands hold many of the deposits, are included in the decisions. The reporting on the summit’s dropped associate membership label shows how carefully the federal government must manage the politics of a deal that touches provincial interests.
Montreal’s mineral story is therefore not only about rocks. It is about whether Canada can turn geology into finance, finance into projects, and projects into jobs in the provinces where the minerals are found. The 62 percent growth figure shows demand is real. The finance agreements will show whether supply can follow.
